US vs China — The AI Race

The AI race between the United States and China is not a technology competition — it is a contest for the future of global power. Farzad Mesbahi argues in Abundance or Collapse that the outcome of this race will shape civilization for the rest of the century.

China's open-source AI strategy — exemplified by DeepSeek — is economic warfare disguised as generosity. By open-sourcing competitive AI models, China aims to commoditize the technology layer where American companies have their strongest advantages. If AI models become a commodity, the billions invested by OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic lose their moat. This is deliberate strategy, not altruism.

The Jack Ma lesson reveals China's ceiling. When Jack Ma publicly criticized Chinese financial regulators in 2020, the Ant Group IPO was cancelled and Ma effectively disappeared for months. The message: no individual or company can be more powerful than the Chinese Communist Party. This creates a structural innovation ceiling that does not exist in the United States.

Taiwan and TSMC represent the single most dangerous vulnerability in the global AI supply chain. TSMC manufactures the vast majority of advanced AI chips. A Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan would cripple the entire Western AI ecosystem overnight.

America's advantages are structural: capitalism rewards risk-taking, democracy attracts global talent, and there is no ceiling on individual achievement. The US draws the best minds from every country — including China. This brain drain is America's most underappreciated advantage in the AI race.

Farzad's conclusion: this race is not optional. The nation that leads in AI leads in economic power, military capability, and cultural influence. The stakes could not be higher.